Frankly, I’m speechless. I turned off the game in the 3rd quarter.

It would be interesting if someone with access to the data could crunch some numbers and see if there ever was a team that has played and defeated that many major bowl winners in the same season.

The game hasn’t even been played and the SEC has already won its sixth straight national title. Ah, but an SEC team will also lose a BCS title game, staining its thus-far spotless 7-0 record in the Big One. Finally, the voters found someone to beat the SEC.

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Also Tyrann Mathieu got invited to New York City for the Heisman ceremony. That means he finished somewhere in the top five of the voting.

• Was LSU indeed looking past the Bulldogs to the BCS title game?
• Would we see Jarrett Lee starting in the second half to provide some offensive spark?
• What was going wrong with the Tigers?
• Or was Georgia really that good?

Georgia had even squandered a number of opportunities, including a walk-in touchdown pass that was dropped and a fairly easy interception in LSU territory that was not made. LSU did not make a first down in the entire first half, and looked even more terrible than that suggests. Only the phenomenal punting of Brad Wing and the special teams performance of Tyrann Mathieu kept the score reasonably close. It was 10-7 at the half, and it could have easily been 28 or 31 instead of ten.

Then I remembered.

For all of the big games for the Tigers this year I had worn my commemorative t-shirt from their championship season four years ago. At half-time I went upstairs, got my t-shirt out and put it on.

The rest is history. LSU scored the final 36 points in the second half and on paper the game looked like a blowout. You would never know that LSU only played the second half…

I will be sure to have my t-shirt on from the start of the game on January 9th.

It was LSU’s 9th game this season with forty or more points and pushed their average margin of victory against all comers to over twenty points. They have defeated 3 top-three teams and will face one more in their final game of the season. I heard some of the “talking heads” at ESPN suggest that this LSU team should be – if they can win the BCS title – discussed as one of the greatest teams of all time. I’m not sure I’m ready to jump on that bandwagon just yet. Ask me again in ten years. In any case, the Tigers have secured the SEC West title, and now the overall SEC championship for 2011. Next up is either Alabama (seems the most likely) or Oklahoma State.

Perfect Storm?

It has seemed for weeks that LSU and Alabama are on collision course for a rematch, and like many I am not really in favor of it. In order to avoid a rematch Oklahoma State had to do something they have not done in eight years – beat Oklahoma. They not only had to beat them, but do so in convincing fashion. And even that would not be enough as Virginia Tech and Stanford are both ranked ahead of OSU in the human polls.

Step one: The Cowboys put a serious beating on Oklahoma. I turned off the game when it was 44-3, and apparently Oklahoma got a garbage touchdown to make the final score 44-10. OSU certainly did their part.
Step two: Virginia Tech got blasted by Clemson 38-10 and didn’t look very good in the loss.
Step three: Stanford didn’t lose, but then again they didn’t play either. Stanford’s only loss was to Oregon but their resume is actually far worse than OSU.

It is certainly conceivable that OSU will jump over both Stanford and Virginia Tech, but will they jump over Alabama?

OSU lost only one game all season. Alabama lost only one game all season. OSU lost on the road, Alabama lost at home. Both games were in overtime. The difference was that Alabama lost to the #1 team (LSU) and OSU lost to an unranked opponent (Iowa State). Instead of looking at the losses, I think folks have to look at the wins. By just about any measure I can find, OSU has a much higher strength of schedule than Alabama, which means there should be more weight for the games they have won than the one game they’ve lost.

Where does that leave us? I guess we’ll find out tonight.

I will admit that I feared for the worst. One of my neighbors usually flies his LSU flag after the game, and he did not have it out. I was afraid that meant that the Tigers had lost. That was reinforced when Arkansas jumped out to a 14-0 lead after an early fumble by LSU was returned for a touchdown. However, the Tigers outscored the Hogs 41-3 for the rest of the game. Mathieu made two huge plays – a punt return for a touchdown and yet another forced fumble. One article I read said that he already has 11 forced fumbles (an LSU school record) for his career and he’s only a sophomore. More importantly to me, he played under control. I felt like Arkansas might try to get into his head because he plays with such emotion but he played well.

Jordan Jefferson suffered his first interception of the season but he also played well. He’s no Andrew Luck or Matt Barkley but he played well enough to win. LSU has won two titles in the last ten years, and neither team had a true star playing quarterback. Overall LSU won with – no surprise – a great defense, great rushing offense, and excellent play on special teams. As Jimmy Johnson was frequently quoted as saying (during his time as Dallas Cowboys coach) there are three aspects to any football game. If you can win two of them, you have a good shot at winning the game. LSU won defense and special teams for this game. One of the quotes made during the broadcast was that LSU’s opponents are averaging 21 inches per punt return! LSU had three different running backs score touchdowns in this game, and for the season the Tigers have four running backs with at least six touchdowns.

As an interesting footnote: LSU has passed Arkansas as the top scoring offense in the conference.

Next up: Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC title game. I have read more than one article that suggests that LSU could even lose this game and still play for the national championship, but I hope they don’t go that route. If they beat Georgia they will have won the SEC outright, they will have defeated the (presumed) PAC-12 champion Oregon, and defeated the (potential) Big East champion West Virginia.

Next we start the “rematch” talk, and I have to say I am not in favor of playing Alabama again. I think we should play the top team from either the Big 12 or Big 10, which would be Oklahoma/Oklahoma State winner or the Wisconsin / Michigan State winner. However, I doubt that will happen. It seems that most writers are accepting that the perceived two best teams in the country are LSU and Alabama, and that those two teams should be playing in the title game. One announcer suggested that LSU should get awarded at the very least a split championship because they have finished the regular season undefeated, would would mean that the AP voters would have to leave LSU #1 no matter what they did in their bowl game.

Any way you look at it, LSU had one of the best seasons that I think I have ever seen as far as who they played, when they played, and how they played in those games. Seven of the teams they defeated this year were ranked at the time we played them. We played three top five teams (Oregon #3, Alabama #2, Arkansas #3). We won one of those on a neutral field, one at home, and one away. If we complete the sweep we will have defeated another top team (Georgia) on a neutral field (or at least as neutral as Atlanta can be for a Georgia Bulldogs game) followed by another top ranked team on another neutral field (as far as New Orleans can be considered neutral for LSU). That’s a heck of a resume.

And not to get ahead of myself, but LSU retains a lot of their starting team other than quarterback. What might next year look like?

1. LSU is favored by 13.5 points over Arkansas. Someone thinks defense will win this game.
2. Of the top three LSU actually has the toughest strength of schedule (SOS) at 17th. ‘Bama is 23rd, and Arkansas is tied for 65th. (Oklahoma State, which is still 2nd in the computer rankings, is between LSU and ‘Bama with the 20th most difficult schedule. You read it here first: don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State still ends up playing for the national title if they beat Oklahoma in convincing fashion.)
3. Arkansas is #1 in the SEC in total offense, yards per game, passing yards, and first downs per game. However, they’re only 6th in the league in 3rd down conversion, which could indicate trouble against a top defense.
4. LSU is #2 in the SEC in total defense, and is #3 in the league against the pass. LSU goes into the game tied for 2nd with 15 interceptions, including 2 returned for touchdowns. Alabama holds the top spot in many of the defensive categories.
5. Arkansas is rated #1 in the SEC for special teams, as they hold down the #2 spot for punting and #1 for kickoff returns. But I don’t think LSU suffers here, as Brad Wing has performed extremely well for the Tigers and their punting team. They are constantly backing opponents beyond their 20 and in the case of the Alabama game behind even the 10 yard line. There are not many teams that can consistently drive 90 yards against good defenses, much less really good teams like LSU. ‘Bama essentially lost the LSU game due to flaws in their special teams unit.
6. All three teams have played one team from the FCS: LSU beat Northwestern State 49-3 and Arkansas beat Missouri State 51-7. However as a team, Northwestern State has a better record at this point of the season than Missouri State. I don’t think I can draw any effective information from this comparison. Alabama played only one FCS school, defeating Georgia Southern 45-21. It should be noted that Georgia Southern is currently seeded in the top four teams for the FCS playoff.
7. The average winning percentage for LSU’s opponents (excluding Arkansas) is 55%. The average winning percentage for Alabama’s opponents is 59%, and Arkansas’s opponents have won just 46% of their games.
8. LSU is 6-0 against teams with winning records, Arkansas is 3-1 and ‘Bama is 4-1. Of course as everyone knows by now, the lone loss for Arkansas came at home against ‘Bama, and the lone loss for ‘Bama was home against LSU. Hm. That does not bode well for LSU hosting Arkansas.
9. Best non-conference victory: LSU over Oregon at a neutral site, Alabama over Penn State away, and Arkansas over Texas A&M at home. Bonus points to LSU for playing West Virginia away as well. In fact it was this victory that pushed LSU to the #1 spot based on their SOS and overall resume at that point in the season.
10. Best home victory: LSU over Auburn, 45-10. Arkansas over South Carolina, 44-28. Arkansas also defeated Auburn at home 38-14. Alabama’s best home win came against Arkansas 38-14.
11. Best road victory: LSU over Alabama, 9-6 (OT). Arkansas has not won any significant road games so far this season, having lost at Alabama 38-14. Alabama’s best road victory is also their best non-conference victory over Penn State.
12. Significant teams not played: None of these top 3 teams have played Georgia yet this year. Arkansas did play South Carolina, which is the only other ranked SEC team that LSU has not played. Arkansas did not face Florida. Alabama did not face South Carolina.

For LSU versus Arkansas, I think what it comes down to is this: Arkansas lost in their only significant road test so far this season. They have a nice come-back game against Texas A&M but the Aggies have given up numerous fourth-quarter leads this year so that victory is not quite as significant. LSU has faced a substantially tougher schedule this year and should be mentally ready for the final “game of the century” … at least until the following week. I think LSU and Les Miles will be ready for the Hogs on Friday. If nothing else, Les should point to the game several years ago when Arkansas came in and nearly derailed the season with their triple overtime win in Baton Rouge. That year Arkansas featured a trio of running backs named Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, and Peyton Hillis. Last time I checked all three were playing in the NFL. Even after losing that game LSU went on to the SEC championship and the BCS title game. I hope they make the same trip this year without the drama of the triple OT loss.

As I have said multiple times already in other posts, Alabama will already know the outcome of LSU versus Arkansas before they go into the Iron Bowl. If LSU loses, or even if they win, you can be that ‘Bama will be attempting to really roll up the score to (a) impress the voters and (b) avenge the loss to Cam Newton’s team from last year.

If LSU loses, what then? All three top teams will be 10-1, each with a round-robin style loss to another team from the set. LSU > Alabama > Arkansas > LSU and all that. Then it’s up to the voters.

What a mess that will be.

Specifically, we have seen Iowa State (27 point underdog) take down previously undefeated Oklahoma State in double overtime. That dropped the Cowboys from the ranks of unbeaten teams and certainly had to give extra incentive to the other top-tier one-loss teams. Then again, you would not have known it as Oregon (15 point favorite) lost to USC and Oklahoma (another 15 point favorite) lost to the Baylor Bears on a last-second touchdown pass. Alabama got by Georgia Southern but allowed 21 points. Arkansas whipped Mississippi State, which could conceivably end up with three SEC West teams being ranked 1-2-3 in the BCS after the big reveal tomorrow night.

Fortunately LSU managed to avoid the so-called “trap” game and take care of business rather handily in Oxford. In fact things went so well that Les Miles had the Tigers run four straight knee-down plays from the one yard line… with five minutes still to go in the game.

Houston remains unbeaten but is hardly a blip on the radar given their relatively weak schedule. Too many folks are thinking of what Hawaii did a few years back (or didn’t do, as the case may be) when they got a BCS bid to attend the Sugar Bowl. (They lost to Georgia 41-10.)

Here’s the worst case scenario: Arkansas beats LSU next Friday, and Alabama wins at Auburn. At this point we have 3 top SEC teams all with one loss, and only one can go to the SEC title game. (Silly rules say we have to allow a team from the Eastern division to play, and Georgia has locked that up.) The final tie breaker involves looking at head to head record if the two top-ranked BCS teams are within 5 spots of each other, so it would all depend on how far LSU falls if they end up losing to Arkansas. Alabama only fell one spot (#2 to #3) but that was primarily because the game was so close. If it’s a blow-out (and with the offensive firepower that Arkansas has you never know) then LSU would almost certainly drop further. And with Alabama already projected to be sitting at #2, then ‘Bama would go to the title game. Then what? Who knows.

From a ‘Bama perspective this coming week shapes up really nicely. They will already know the outcome of the LSU / Arkansas game (which is played on Friday) before they take on Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl. If Arkansas wins, you can be sure that the Tide will attempt to pour it on at Auburn to impress the voters. Remember that ‘Bama stomped Arkansas 38-14 back in September before losing to LSU 6-9 a few weeks ago. I know the transitive property doesn’t apply in college football, but that doesn’t mean people don’t still try to apply it…

As a Tiger fan, I hope that LSU can take care of Arkansas next Friday and move on. As a fan of college football who really wishes we had a playoff system, wouldn’t it be awesome if we ended up with this scenario? Suppose LSU loses to Arkansas, leaving Alabama to head to the SEC title game. Suppose ‘Bama loses a close game to Georgia, leaving the Bulldogs as the SEC champion and the associated Sugar Bowl berth. That leaves LSU and Arkansas with only 1 loss (’Bama has two in this scenario, having lost to Georgia) and end up playing for the BCS championship in a rematch, which LSU wins. The rest of the country howls because their teams got shut out of the title game, and we had two teams playing that didn’t even win their own conference. Nothing screams playoffs more than this mess.

It will be very interesting to see the BCS rankings come out tomorrow, as the voters start to adjust their votes based on who they think they want to see in the title game, rather than who necessarily deserves to be there.

And ultimately I hope LSU beats Arkansas and takes it all as an undefeated / undisputed champion.

I’m thinking of another top-ten team that lost to a backup quarterback this season… Nebraska. They lost to Northwestern and that cost them their chance for the Big 10 championship.

Please, LSU, don’t let the backup quarterback knock you out of the top spot.

Oklahoma State remained undefeated at #2 after shellacking Texas Tech in the “Devil’s Game” where the final score was 66-6. You can figure out where I got the name of the game from. It makes the Texas Tech win at Oklahoma all that much more mystifying. Should Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State in the final game of their season, what does that do? I think that puts Oklahoma back into the championship game, pitting the early season #1 team against the late season #1. Somehow that bookend feeling makes sense, even if you’re an Alabama fan. Speaking of Alabama they remain #3 right behind Oklahoma State. Alabama missed more field goals but did take down Mississippi State 24-7. They have their end of season war with Auburn coming up. Interestingly enough, ‘Bama plays their game a day after LSU plays Arkansas. Should LSU trip up against the Hogs you can bet ‘Bama will have double motivation going into Auburn. First they’ll want to avenge the loss in Tuscaloosa last year. Second, they’ll want to impress the pollsters with a major victory and attempt to stake their claim on the second BCS bowl slot. I don’t envy Auburn (who just lost to Georgia by the score or 45-7) in either case.

Don’t look now, but Oregon has jumped back up into the top five after their beat-down of Stanford this weekend. I was out all weekend (cub scout camping) but recorded the Oregon/Stanford game to watch when I got home. I could not watch the entire game; Oregon made Stanford just look bad. All of the big plays that LSU stopped? Stanford got ripped by a number of plays that went for more than 50 yards. They just didn’t have the speed to compete. LSU has the brawn inside and the speed outside to contain a team like Oregon (or dare I say it Oklahoma State?) but Stanford obviously did not. As a result Stanford drops out of the national title conversation, and perhaps might not even win the PAC 12.

Suppose Oregon takes the PAC 12 championship (which should happen) and suppose West Virginia comes back to win the Big East (which could be unlikely). If LSU beats Ole Miss and Arkansas they go to the SEC title game. If they win that game (facing either Georgia or South Carolina) they’ll have an incredible resume, having won their own conference and defeated the eventual champions of two other conferences. The Oklahoma / Oklahoma State winner seems to be the obvious choice for an opponent in the title game.

Turns out that there was a lot more going on than Stanford / Oregon this weekend. TCU and Boise State have had some incredible bowl games over the years, but this year they met for the first time (if my memory is correct) as members of the same conference. TCU played on the blue turf at Boise and squeaked out a one point victory by scoring a two point conversion on their final touchdown and then watching a relatively short field goal attempt sail wide right in the final seconds of the game. It was the first home loss by Boise State after 65 consecutive victories. Boise drops to 10 (one spot behind Stanford) and remains in a good spot to get invited to a decent bowl game. However they’re probably no longer in the national championship conversation, with many stronger teams also with only one loss ranked ahead of them.

I didn’t see any of the Big 10 games this weekend, but I read several write-ups that suggest we’re looking at a Michigan State / Wisconsin rematch for their championship game. I bet Nebraska would really like a mulligan on the Northwestern game right about now. Penn State has started facing the meat of their schedule and is going to drop. One writer suggested the Lions would be good if they finish 8-4 and head to a second tier bowl game.

In the ACC Clemson remains the class of the league. Florida State who was supposed to challenge not only for the league title but for a championship bid has clawed their way back into the picture and is ranked #23 for the current week. That helps Oklahoma as well. It would be interesting to go back and re-watch the Oklahoma State / Florida State game and compare it to the LSU / ‘Bama battle. The more I think about it, the more I’m looking forward to the Bedlam game, no matter what LSU’s status is at the time.

It’s certainly shaping up to be an exciting season end!

P. S. LSU did beat Western Kentucky this weekend. I probably should at least mention that.

The wildcard for me is coaching: I think Les Miles brings a certain unpredictability aspect to the game, so if Sabin can get into his head that could impact the outcome of the game.

That’s what I wrote last week while thinking about the LSU versus Alabama game that took place last night, and as amazing as it is to say, I think that’s exactly what happened.

Except in reverse.

I think the Mad Hatter’s reputation got Sabin worried, and he reached. How else can you explain the trick play where Maze tried an option pass that was intercepted on the one yard line? And then putting Maze (on a bad ankle) out to return a punt that ended up rolling by for a 70+ yard effort? How else can you explain the terrible play calling in the first overtime? Les Miles, on the other hand, coached a very conservative game. After seeing the effect the LSU defense was having on the ‘Bama offense he apparently realized it was going to be a slug-fest. Back up on your own goal line? Run three times and punt. Down inside the five on fourth down? Points are going to be hard to come by so take the safe field goal and eschew going for it on forth down. LSU made yards running up the middle, made yards running around the end, passed when they had to, and punted extraordinarily well (with one notable exception). Alabama missed a bunch of field goals (including one in the first overtime) and had another blocked.

Turns out that was enough to win the game.

It would not have been enough had Eric Reid not gone up and taken away the pass that Maze threw. If Reid doesn’t get that ball, Alabama sets up on the one yard line and certainly scores from there.

One article on another sports network was titled “Les Drama” and had a subtitle that read “Coach Les Miles left the tricks behind as No. 1 LSU beat No. 2 Alabama at its own brand of football.” It was an interesting turn-about as Les – in my opinion – clearly out-coached Sabin in a game that most likely determined the fate of the two teams. At this point LSU still has to get by Arkansas in order to make it to the SEC championship game, but if they win out they’re heading back to New Orleans for their third attempt at a national title, and ‘Bama will be going to the Sugar Bowl.

On the negative side, I was extremely disappointed in the play from the “honey badger.” He took out a ‘Bama player on the ultimate cheap shot on a punt return, costing the Tigers only a 15-yard penalty as a result. If this were the NFL he would be facing a fine. I suspect LSU might suspend him for a game or two, but somehow he’ll be back against Arkansas.

Around the rest of the country, we saw Oklahoma State barely survive an offensive onslaught from Kansas State. When are people going to realize that teams don’t become offensively empowered when they play the Cowboys, but that the Cowboy defense is just that bad? Seriously, this is what we have to look forward to in the national title game? Oklahoma is a more complete team, so I hope the Sooners go into the Bedlam game and come out victorious because I really don’t want to see Oklahoma State in the title game.

Nebraska might be rethinking their move to the Big 10 after getting bounced by Northwestern. Last night on the weekend recap ESPN pointed out that this was the third week in a row that a top-ten team lost to an un-ranked opponent, starting with Oklahoma losing to Texas Tech, followed by undefeated Clemson losing to Georgia TEch and ending up with Nebraska. I think Oklahoma State’s coach said it best when he said, “It’s March Madness every week in college football” or something to that effect. (By the way, as I was watching the weekend wrap-up show I did feel the earthquake from Oklahoma all the way down here in Dallas. )

Stanford and Boise State both won, and both have challenging games next week. Stanford goes into Oregon to take on the Ducks and the Broncos take on TCU… and not in a bowl game this year. The Stanford game is likely to be televised, and it would be awesome for LSU if the Ducks won the game. For one thing it only helps cement the Tigers as one of the premier teams in the NCAA this year, having beat the Ducks earlier this season, but it removes Stanford from the ranks of unbeaten teams. TCU has not played up to their reputation from the past few years (Andy Dalton’s success in the NFL could be one indication that TCU wasn’t just all about defense) and the Horned Frogs have to play on the blue turf. Still if anyone is going to trip up the Broncos, TCU probably has the best shot.

How would I like the season to end? That’s an interesting question. I would love to see LSU win out and head to the national title game. But who to play? I don’t want to see Oklahoma State, but Oklahoma presents an intriguing match. I don’t want to see Stanford, although Andrew Luck would certainly bring a marquee name to the game I don’t think they have the defense or even the overall offensive skill to hang with LSU. What about the Big 10 champion? Penn State has already lost to Alabama. Nebraska was in the top spot and had already played all of the other top teams. Now that they’ve lost again, they’re going to have to get help from someone else to even make the championship game, much less win it. Michigan State is now in the top spot… but they play at Iowa, where the Wolverines just got defeated. Iowa plays very tough at home so that’s far from a “gimme” game. Anyone from the ACC going to step up to the plate? Not after Clemson lost, although the Tigers remain the highest ranked ACC team I don’t see them climbing back to the top two.

Boise State? If they get by TCU, they will likely finish the season undefeated. The Broncos are obviously the biggest cheerleader for Georgia at this point. Boise State took down Georgia in the first game of the season, and that victory remains their crown jewel. If Georgia makes it to the SEC title game (which is now within reach, since South Carolina lost to Arkansas) then Boise State has a decent argument. I think it comes down to the computers, who – inexplicably – seem to love Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys lose, where does Boise come in on the computer rankings? Right now they’re 4th and could go higher based on ‘Bama’s loss.

The BCS show tonight on ESPN is going to be very interesting. I may even watch it this time instead of waiting to read about it tomorrow.